A GENUINE MENACE OR JUST A TECHNO-JOKE ?

An excerpt from the Washington Post (Wednesday, December 9, 1998) written by Robert J. Samuelson. The year 2000 computer glitch was a phenomenon that was completely predictable and - with enough time and money - fixable. But it won't be completely fixed by the year 2000. So what should have been no more than a minor mishap could mushroom into a major economic setback or even a social crisis. Economist Ed Yardeni of Deutsche Bank in New York is at an extreme in predicting a 70 percent chance of a major recession. But his forecast is not so outlandish that it's cavalierly dismissed by other economists. At best, we'll spend much of the next year wondering whether the Y2K problem is a genuine menace or just a bad techno-joke.

By now, almost everyone knows that the Y2K problem refers to the danger that some computers - mainly large systems for companies and government agencies - will misread the advent of 2000. (They'll see "00" and not 2000.) This in turn might shut systems that run factories, power grids, water supplies and a host of everyday activities. There is no deep mystery about how to disarm the Y2K threat. Software codes need to be screened and corrected. Or entire computer systems need to be replaced. In practice, this is inevitably a trickle-down process. Big companies repair their own systems, while cajoling and compelling their smaller suppliers and customers to do the same. Lessons gleaned in richer countries pass to poorer nations through multinational companies or global agencies. The collective learning process is driven by corporate and bureaucratic self-interest (companies don't want to sacrifice sales, while agencies don't want to antagonize constituents). Because corrections have begun, the outlook is not entirely bleak. Yardeni recently reviewed 402 Y2K disclosure statements from big U.S. companies - the likes of Ford and BankAmerica. Together, they're spending $29 billion to fix the Y2K problem.

The federal government also has made progress. In November 1997, only 27 percent of its "mission critical" computer systems had been fixed. These systems write Social Security checks, award college grants and talk to the space shuttle. Now the figure is 61 percent; by March, the White House says it will reach 85 percent. But problems remain. Within the federal government, some agencies lag. Consider the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA). It administers the $200 billion Medicare program, which serves more than 38 million people. HCFA pays nearly 1 million doctors, hospitals and laboratories through a computer network involving 103 separate systems. HCFA says that only 18 of these are now Y2K compliant (though it also says that 90 percent of the work to fix the remaining systems has been done).

Smaller companies, too, have troubles. According to Yardeni, Du Pont surveyed many of its key suppliers. Of the roughly 30 percent that responded, Du Pont judged that two-fifths might not correct their problems in time. Also disturbing is a recent report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris, whose 29 members represent the world's richest countries. The report found a "mixed level of preparedness" and concluded that "the majority of work remains to be done." Conversions by poorer countries - many suffering economic crisis - probably lag further behind. For three reasons, we can't deduce from all this the true Y2K danger. First, we can't predict how many computers will go unfixed. The problem is too big. The White House, for example, now says that the Federal Aviation Administration's air-traffic-control system won't succumb to the Y2K bug. Fine. But air travel also could suffer from failures of computers that handle runway lights, baggage or reservations -- all operated by airports or airlines. Second, we can't know how disruptive small failures might be. General Motors receives supplies from about 100,000 locations around the world. Suppose 5 percent of those go down. Would that affect zero percent of GM's output, 30 percent or 100 percent? Finally, we don't know how people and companies will try to protect themselves against Y2K - for good or ill. If investors worry about Y2K, that could depress stock prices. On the other hand, companies might try to preempt supplier shortages by stockpiling. That could temporarily spur the economy. So we will wait. Economic forecasts largely ignore Y2K, because the threat - like wars and natural disasters - lies outside familiar economic experience. Even if (miraculously) every computer in America were fixed, breakdowns abroad might depress trade and employment. The irony is that, if this were 1995 or 1996, Y2K would not bother us. If we'd done then what we're doing now, the world would have had time to prepare. Why didn't we? There were warnings, and unlike many techno-controversies (say, global warming), the legitimacy of the Y2K problem was never in doubt. Yet hardly anyone listened. Some standard causes clearly apply: People deny what they don't like; the issue lacked political sex appeal; people assumed that "someone" would fix the problem. So the technologists making the warnings could not really talk with their intended audience. The result is that whatever damage Y2K does, the wound will be mostly self-inflicted.

NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE

The truth is that no one can be absolutely sure what damage the millennium bug will cause. Certainly, the two-digit date glitch will cause trouble. There is no question that we're going to have unusual things occurring but predictions of potential disasters seem to be vastly overblown. An extensive study by Merrill Lynch & Co., published in June, looked at thousands of companies worldwide and rated their level of compliance. The results are encouraging. For example, all 29 Latin American banks that were surveyed "will be compliant," as will eight of the 10 major U.S. pollution control companies (the others are listed as "likely compliant"). Lacking the spur of competition, federal and state government agencies are behind the private sector, but they are hustling. The Social Security Administration, for example, is in great shape, but a survey by the General Accounting Office found that only 6 percent of state Medicaid systems were compliant, raising the specter of delays in benefit payments. "A bomb shelter mentality is not called for," said a recent report by the Gartner Group, the high-tech consulting firm. "Preparing for the millennium should be more like preparing for a storm that will last less than a week." Unlike Yardeni, 33 economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicted an average increase of 0.1 percent in GDP as a result of spending to fix the Y2K Problem. The Y2K glitch is not likely to be a blessing, but it is not such a curse that you need to sell your stocks, withdraw your cash, buy guns and stock up on water and supplies for several months.

HOW READY ARE THE KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS ? POWER FAILURE - A Y2K DRESS REHEARSAL

Early in December this year, San Francisco, the city that boasts it is the most wired on earth was unplugged by a massive power outage that left several million people without electricity, darkened office towers, halted public transportation and trapped dozens in stalled elevators. It was not an earthquake, or El Nino. It was simple human error, said Pacific Gas and Electric. Construction workers at a power substation in suburban San Mateo to damaged a main line after maintenance and caused a shut down. About 375,000 PG&E customers, business or office -- found themselves living off the grid most of the day. Transportation ground to a halt during the morning rush hour. Bay Area Rapid Transit subways stalled on the tracks and in the tunnels. So, too, did San Francisco's iconic cable cars and most city buses, which all run on electricity. Traffic signals flicked off. And gridlock began. Within minutes, modern Americans were reminded how much their world relies on electricity. Stores and offices were dark. No ATMs. No coffee grinders. No elevators and escalators. Financial markets closed. Flights to San Francisco International Airport were temporarily diverted, not because planes could not fly, but because the jetways that get people on and off the aircraft are powered by electricity. People milled on the streets. Cars treated all intersections like four-way stops and police were on hand to direct the traffic. Advertising signs were dark, and buses and cable cars stood idle at the curbs. Many of San Francisco's digital citizens mentioned that the outage was perhaps a glimpse of the chaos that could be caused in the first minutes of the year 2000. San Francisco police and emergency officials did, in fact, see the blackout as a dry run through a possible Y2K scenario. Many citizens, however, seemed to view the outage as an almost welcome diversion to their work life. Emergency officials said that despite traffic snarls and commuting delays, the city was orderly. Hospitals and many offices switched over to auxiliary generators to power lights and run priority equipment. So, too, did many operations that run international Internet sites. There were no reports of looting or mayhem.

DEPENDENCE ON TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND POWER

The San Francisco Bay Area blackout served as a warning of what might happen in a society dependent upon electricity for basic services and commerce. "It's another reminder of how tremendously dependent everyone is on power," said Peter Neumann, a critical infrastructure expert and the author of the book "Computer Related Risks". "It's kind of a harbinger of the Year 2000 problem. We're in practice mode right now." Neumann said one of the issues facing the information society is that power itself is in increasingly less supply at the dawn of the millennium. "The entire power generation, transmission, and distribution problem is suffering, because there is very little spare power anymore," he said. Therefore, backup power supplies that once filled in during outages are also less available, Neumann said. The reason is simply greater demand. The information age -- with its computers, appliances, networks, communications systems, and more -- eats power, using up what used to be a stand-by supply. In another country: (March 1998), a power outage left the central business district of Auckland, New Zealand, without electricity for weeks, showing both the fragility of critical services infrastructure and the endurance of information-based commerce. Thanks to the decentralization of businesses using computer networks, much of New Zealand's business kept humming. Institutions with more centralized systems, like the New Zealand Stock Exchange, and some of the country's banks, insurance companies, and accounting firms, fell victim to the long outage. Many smaller businesses were relocated to offices in Auckland's suburbs, or buildings in other cities. In some cases, workers were sent home with laptop computers. Neumann sees no simple fixes for the United States, a society that has become dependent on telecommunications and power. Outages like the San Francisco one is yet another warning that everyone -- from governments down to businesses and individuals -- needs to be more prepared. "What's needed is more long-term planning and thinking," Neumann said. The lesson of such incidents is fundamentally greater awareness of what could happen, and to be as prepared as possible. "No one knows what will happen. Technology is not perfect."

US POWER PLANTS

Federal audits of nuclear power plants show that safety-related systems suffer from Y2K woes. A November 1998 government audit of the Seabrook, New Hampshire, nuclear plant found that reactor coolant level monitoring systems, fuel handling systems, reactor vessel level indication systems, and the computer system that oversees digital controllers would not work properly in the year 2000. Of 1,304 programs and embedded systems afflicted with Y2K, the audit said 12 had "safety implications." Paul Gunter, director of the Nuclear Information and Resource Service's reactor watchdog project, an anti-nuclear advocacy group, calls for a shut down of US nuclear plants unless operators can prove all Year 2000 bugs have been exterminated. Arguing that Americans can't risk even a slight chance of system failure, the group asked federal regulators to flip the switch on suspect nuclear plants by 1 December 1999. The NRC already has required that all nuclear power plants report their Y2K- readiness by 1 July 1999. If all US nuclear plants were shut down, the country would lose approximately 20 percent of its electric power. Nuclear units are disproportionately located in the northeast, where they supply about 40 percent of the power.

SOCIAL SECURITY KILLED THE YK BUG

The Social Security Administration has resolved its Year 2000 computer problems, ensuring that monthly benefit checks to 48 million Americans will continue to be delivered without disruption, President Clinton announced on Monday December 29, 1998. "The millennium bug will not delay the payment of Social Security checks by a single day," Clinton said. Social Security computer systems, which link to electronic payment systems at the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve, were tested and validated by a panel of independent experts as ready for operation on Jan. 1, 2000. "The system works, it is secure, and therefore older Americans can feel more secure," the president said.

BANKING

- Y2K Won't Short-Circuit FedWire Initial tests show that the central nervous system of the American banking industry, known as FedWire, will survive the Year 2000 problem, government and banking officials said. Tests of FedWire, the Federal Reserve Bank's electronic funds and securities transfer service, began in June. Some 11,600 depository institutions, including banks, thrifts, credit unions and the US Treasury, transfer more than US$300 trillion a year through the network. The Treasury and other federal agencies use FedWire extensively to collect and disburse money. So, should the FedWire fail, the US government would lose one of the chief mechanisms for controlling the flow of money through the economy. "We have had no Y2K problems with FedWire" on the government side, said Carl Gambs, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Missouri. "In general, these systems are in good shape," he said. The financial community, and the Fed in particular, are far ahead of most businesses in dealing with the millennium bug. The government is requiring all FedWire users to conduct Year 2000 testing by no later than 30 June 1999. Bankers got a small preview of what might happen if FedWire went down for the count in August 1990. A power failure cut off service to New York's financial district, including all of the Fed's computer systems. FedWire was not down for long, but it took a week before it could operate at full capacity. By then, as much as $150 billion was already in the wrong accounts. "Frankly, if FedWire went down, there is no alternative available," said Gambs. "Trillions of dollars move through this system, and if we had not been able to make it compliant, banks domestically would have no way of transferring those sums.

- Small Banks Hunker Down At a US House Banking Committee hearing on the Y2K problem, Delaware Bank Commissioner Timothy McTaggart admitted he was feeling "particular concern about small bank preparedness." However, while McTaggart said it would be "premature" to promise that all banks will be fully Year 2000-compliant come 31 December 1999, he said that state bank regulators are taking all the necessary steps to help state- chartered banks fix the Y2K bug. McTaggart testified on behalf of the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, the professional association of state officials responsible for overseeing the nation's 6,805 state-chartered banks and more than 400 state-licensed foreign banking offices. "The problem is certainly critical and requires immediate attention," said McTaggart. "However, with planning, prioritization, and a lot of hard work, it is not insurmountable."

- Some banks have been ordered to shape up for Y2K Zia New Mexico Bank in Tucumcari, New Mexico became the second US financial institution ordered by the Federal Reserve in Dec. 98 to beef up its computer systems to prepare for potential year 2000 problems. With a year to go before a potential computer meltdown on 1 January 2000, the US central bank issued a cease-and-desist order against the Bank. The order gives Zia 10 days to appoint a manager to supervise the bank's 2000 readiness, and 30 days to present a written plan to cope with "risks that may be caused by failures of the bank's core business practices." On November 17, 1997. The Fed ordered bank holding-company Putnam-Greene Financial of Eatonton, Georgia, to develop a plan showing that all computerized operations it carries out for itself and for three subsidiary banks would function normally after the 1 January 2000. The Fed, in a special supervisory letter to the 12 regional Fed banks in November 1997, said, "achieving Year 2000 readiness is critical to ensuring the safety and soundness of the banking system."

- Fear could lead to panic The US central bank has said it intends to have extra cash on hand, so that if banks face large withdrawals in advance of Year 2000 it can supply the funds to them quickly. Fear of electric-power outages and bank failures could lead to widespread panic as disruptive as the Y2K glitch. "Even if the Y2K problem is solved, the panic side of it can end up hurting us as badly," said, Senator Robert Bennett, who heads the Senate's Year 2000 committee. Increased jitters about computer failures in financial institutions could spark bank runs in 1999. The US Federal Reserve is printing an extra US$50 billion worth of bank notes as part of a wider contingency where the public will remain cashed up in the face of widespread uncertainty about whether basic services will continue to operate normally after December 31, 1999. The central banks of Australia and New Zealand have taken similar steps. As an added precaution, a reserve of old paper notes would be kept in storage instead of being destroyed, to ensure that the needs of all banks and their customers could be met at no extra cost. If even a fraction of Americans took $500 out of their credit unions, the result would be a shortfall of credit unions overall of $16 billion.

- Use Bank statements as Y2K proof Even if the Y2K bug cleans out your bank account, you have nothing to fear -- your nest egg will be restored by the nation's banking safety net. "If a bank or thrift institution should fail because of Year 2000 problems, insured deposits will be covered -- no ifs, ands, or buts," said Donna Tanoue, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Tanoue said that the risks posed by Y2K to the banking industry were minimal, but should be taken seriously.

POWER FAILURES MAY SHUT DOWN WALL STREET

Even if Wall Street's computers are Y2K OK, what happens if the electricity dies and the phones fail? In North America, power generation and distribution is handled through three electrical interconnections, or grids, that include the United States, Canada, and a tiny portion of Mexico. The grids are split up into 10 regions and run by 136 control centers. "Things may happen. But the expectation is that we'll be prepared for these types of things," Gerry Cauley, Y2K project manager for NERC. John Koskinen, the chair of the president's Y2K council said "People are generally concerned about the infrastructure: Will the lights stay on, will you get a dial tone? Thus far, judging by the first assessments being done on the power area, companies have been candid." Koskinen said the government would be moving from contingency planning to a crisis-management phase.

PUBLIC EMERGENCY SYSTEMS

Emergency agencies have begun to ferret out Y2K bugs from their own equipment but are not yet preparing for electricity, gas, or telephone service failures, says a survey, conducted last month on ERRI's Web site. Less than a third of the 212 fire, police, and medical emergency units that responded to the survey said they had a "specific plan to deal with any potential problems" that might erupt the evening of 31 December 1999. "I'm a little concerned," said Clark Staten, director of the Chicago-based Emergency Response and Research Institute, which conducted the survey. "We aren't as prepared as we should be." Staten, a former fire chief, said emergency agencies are used to reacting to disasters after they happen -- a habit that leaves them ill-prepared to plan for Y2K. "They're very response- oriented," he said. "I'm sure there are budgetary issues involved, too." The survey, showed that nearly all respondents understand the implications of Y2K. Three-quarters of them believe it will affect their operations, but only 24 percent have contingency plans to deal with external disruptions. At risk are 911 dispatch systems, which rely on computers, and communications systems. Motorola, Ericsson, Kenwood, and other large radio manufacturers have said all products sold today are Y2K OK, but some older units will need upgrades. Less than half the fire, police, medical, military, and disaster-relief agencies that responded to the survey believe their departments are "effectively prepared to deal" with the millennium bug at this time.

Y2K RECESSION UNLIKELY

At an economic symposium in Houston, Fed governor Edward Kelley said he was "cautiously optimistic that the millennium bug will not cause major economic disruptions when it bites." Kelley acknowledged that there will be some impact on the U.S. economy, stemming from concern over the effectiveness of worldwide efforts to reprogram computers so that they handle dates properly after December 31, 1999. "We really have no previous experience with a challenge of this sort to give us reliable guideposts," he said. Another complicated aspect of the millennium bug is the interrelated character of many computer systems. An individual company may be satisfied that it has done all it can to fix its own systems, but still may feel very vulnerable to the actions taken by its suppliers and customers. The Fed also was prepared to counteract any serious effects on the economy. "We will...be ready if people want to hold more cash on New Year's Eve 1999, and we will be prepared to lend whatever sums may be needed to financial institutions through the discount window under appropriate circumstances to provide needed reserves to the banking system," Kelley said. The U.S. central bank, which controls monetary policy, can reduce interest rates to make it cheaper to borrow and so encourage consumer demand. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will steadily cut U.S. interest rates through 1999 to ease borrowing costs for businesses trying to solve their millennium bug problems.

AIR TRAFFIC

- A sneak preview: Glitch pulls plug on air traffic radar - The skies over Southern California became a little less friendly for several minutes on Nov. 12 when a software glitch affected some of that region's airports. The Federal Aviation Administration had added software called Arts3E to enhance air traffic radar system displays, and that caused the glitch, said Tim Pile, a FAA spokesman. Arts3E was built by the FAA and Lockheed Martin Corp. Despite the problem, pilots and controllers in the tower were able to communicate via audio and visually, Pile said. Six planes were held going into Los Angeles International Airport, and six other planes were delayed for nine minutes going outbound during that time. In addition to Los Angeles, the failure affected airports in San Diego, Burbank, Ontario, Costa Mesa, and Long Beach, said Kevin Van Uden, NATCA facility representative. The temporary failure caused information such as an airplane's destination, altitude and departure point to cease processing. That information was unavailable for 11 minutes, and the system itself took another two to three minutes to reboot. Major airports, including Dallas/Fort Worth and Chicago are both going back to an older version of the FAA computer systems.

- NO Guarantee from KLM KLM Royal Dutch Airlines won't guarantee that it will be able to operate flights safely on 1 January 2000 because of the threat posed by the millennium bug. They blame government torpor for the uncertainty. Max Rens, KLM's chief information officer, said the airline had done everything it could to tackle the bug and ensure the safety of operations, but was being let down by governments which are responsible for airports and air traffic control. "In answer to the question, 'Will you be flying in 2000?', I reply that it is a combination of yes and no," Rens told the Global Year 2000 Summit. "KLM is ready to fly, but in order to do that you have to cross borders and go to airports. Air traffic control is out of our hands." The fear that computers may crash at midnight on 31 December 1999, crippling critical systems worldwide, remains a real one. "I see no action from Brussels [headquarters of the European Union]. I'm fearful that we will not be ready in time, there will be delays and detours. Planes will stay on the ground and this means capital will not be generating money. Within a half a year some [airlines] will be facing bankruptcy."

DEFENSE

- US aims to avert Y2K-induced war. Concerned that the Year 2000 computer bug could disrupt military early-warning systems, the United States is reaching out to the world's nuclear powers in an unprecedented effort to avoid an accidental conflict. Pentagon officials say they are confident that U.S. nuclear command and control systems will be ready for the Y2K problem, but worry that foreign early warning systems could malfunction and falsely indicate an attack. Efforts are also being made through the State Department and intelligence community to establish "back channel" contacts with nations that are hostile toward the United States. Although plans are not finalized, Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre says he hopes to have some cooperative efforts in place next year. Hamre, adding, "We'll move as fast as we can with the Russians." There is general agreement that Y2K problem that could disable computers after Dec. 31, 1999 - will not cause missiles to launch mistakenly, but early- warning systems could malfunction. For instance, in January 1995, Russian equipment mistook a NASA launch for a missile attack. "Up to 80% of all defense ministry systems could be affected," says Sergey Rogov, an adviser to the Russian Duma on Year 2000 issues.

- Study suggests failsafe nuke shutdown The British American Security Information Council warned in a 36-page report that America and Russia should shut down their nuclear arsenals rather than risk Armageddon because of Year 2000 glitches. Y2K errors could cause the systems to go haywire, leading to erroneous early warning reports or even triggering an accidental launch of a nuclear missile. Both superpowers keep their arsenals in a constant state of readiness -- a Cold War-era strategy that could backfire with devastating results if the computer gremlins strike. The Clinton administration's September quarterly report on federal agencies says: ``The Department of Defense has a massive Year 2000 challenge which must be accomplished on a tight schedule. The Department has improved its rate of progress in addressing the challenge, but the pace must be increased to meet government-wide milestones.'' The administration's report says that as of this summer, 42 percent of the Pentagon's most vital systems -- 2,965 in all-have been Y2K cleared.

Russia has agreed to allow NATO experts to investigate how the Y2K bug could affect Russia's defense systems. While some experts warn that Russia's nuclear weapons could be destabilized by the millennium bug, NATO officials said their primary concern is to avoid any malfunctions in Russia's air-defense and early-warning systems.

Y2K EARLY WARNING - NEW ZEALAND

The US Senate committee will set up a system to take advantage of the time difference in the Pacific to get early warning of problems as 1999 ends. Senator Bob Bennett said a Year 2000 "first alert" system focused on what will happen in New Zealand and other Pacific countries after midnight on 31 December 1999, would give the United States more than 17 hours notice of how utilities and transport services may be disrupted. "It is absolutely foolish not to use this advance notice for the good of the nation," Bennett said at a hearing on emergency services planning for the Year 2000. Bennett said he looked forward to working with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to establish the early warning system but was prepared to introduce legislation if necessary.

JAPAN MUST LEAD ASIA ON Y2K

Most other countries generally are not as Y2K-savvy as the United States. According to Strategic Information Ltd., Russia, China, and much of Africa and South America need major emergency support to survive. What's going to happen when whole countries drop off the radar screen with no infrastructure remaining ? Global calamity has economic and military implications for the United States. The White House plans to hold two more Y2K summits in spring and summer 1999.

YEAR 2000 BY STATE

Most states are confident they can rework their most critical computer systems. Despite an effort expected to cost nearly $2 billion, however, some low-priority systems can't be fixed before the turn of the century.

State .....................Assessment Done?. .....Estimated Cost ......Estimated Work Done

Alabama ............................Yes ..........................$92M ......................1%

Alaska ...............................No ............................NA .........................NA

Arizona ..............................Yes .........................$100M .....................40%

California ...........................Yes .........................$200M .....................23%

Colorado ...........................Yes .........................$40 ..........................NA

Connecticut ........................Yes .........................NA ..........................NA

Delaware ............................Yes ........................$600K .....................42%

Florida ................................Yes ........................$75M - $90M ..........NA

Georgia ...............................Yes........................ NA ...........................NA

Hawaii .................................No ........................$8M .........................29%

Idaho ...................................Yes .......................$16M - $19M ..........20% - 35%

Illinois ...................................No .......................NA ...........................30% - 35%

Indiana .................................Yes ......................$87M ........................5% - 10%

Iowa .....................................No ......................$20M ........................40%

Kansas ..................................Yes .....................$17M .......................65%

Kentucky ...............................Yes .....................$20M ......................40% - 50%

Louisiana ................................Yes .....................NA ..........................NA

Maine .....................................Yes ....................$3M - $5M ...............45% - 50%

Maryland .................................No ....................$100M .....................NA

Massachusetts .........................Yes ....................$48.8M.................... NA

Michigan ..................................Yes ...................$55.6M ....................30 - 40%

Minnesota ................................Yes ...................$23M ........................40%

Mississippi ...............................Yes ...................$19M ........................20%

Missouri ...................................Yes ..................$75M .........................5%

Montana ...................................No ....................NA ...........................25%

Nebraska .................................Yes ...................$16.7M ....................50% - 55%

Nevada ....................................Yes ...................$6M .........................10%

New Hampshire .......................No ....................NA ............................NA

New Jersey .............................Yes ....................NA............................ NA

New Mexico........................... Yes ...................$5M - $7M ...............40% - 60%

New York ...............................Yes ...................$250M .....................25%

North Carolina .........................Yes ...................$82M .......................5%

North Dakota............................Yes ...................$2.1M ......................30%

Ohio .........................................No ...................$60M ........................20% - 25%

Oklahoma ................................Yes ....................$40M .......................50%

Oregon ....................................Yes ....................$75M .......................15%

Pennsylvania .............................Yes ...................$37.8M .....................31%

Rhode Island ............................Yes ....................$6M - $21M............. NA

South Carolina ..........................No ....................$30.2M ......................NA

South Dakota ...........................Yes ....................$3.7M ........................25%

Tennessee ................................Yes ....................$15M .........................70%

Texas .......................................Yes ....................$207M ......................35% - 40%

Utah ..........................................No ....................NA ............................NA

Vermont ....................................Yes ...................NA ............................75%

Virginia ......................................Yes ...................$50M ........................25% - 30%

Washington ................................Yes ...................$54M ........................20%

West Virginia ..............................Yes ..................$7.5M .......................NA

Wisconsin ...................................Yes ...................NA ...........................NA

Wyoming.................................... Yes ...................NA ...........................15% -20%

Estimates may not cover all state agencies, commissions and bureaus. Costs also may not include expenses for routine systems upgrades that fix Year 2000 problems.

Source: USA TODAY research by Anthony DeBarros

Baltimore, MD.  Tue, 29 Dec 1998
VACETS Column